Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-06T00:37:41

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently at normal background levels, below the observable levels by GOES16. This is expected to persist day 1, before rising through days 2 and 3 in response to the connection to the fast wind of coronal hole 07. This is likely to peak at High levels, although there is some significant uncertainty around the arrival times and strength of this fast wind. If a strong connection does occur, there is a chance for the associated fluence to then rise and approach Active levels (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu), with a chance of exceeding them. This is most likely by day 3 (8th). 

REFM currently shows only a limited rise, whilst a similar, but weak, rise was observed on the previous solar rotation. On this occasion, however, a stronger connection to the fast wind is anticipated, suggesting an increased response in the observed electron flux.