MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-30T00:28:49
The high energy electron flux is at background levels, with the lingering effects of the high speed stream from coronal hole 06 unlikely to have a significant effect on values. If the 25 January CME arrives on 30 January, this could lead to a brief increase above the high (1e3) level on days 1 and 2 (30 and 31 January).
Corresponding electron fluence levels are also at background levels. Any input from the anticipated CME could elevate the electron fluence, although it is not expected to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-30T00:28:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |