MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-14T00:30:24
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may reach the high (1e3pfu) level on diurnal peaks on days 2 to 4 due to the enhancement of the high speed stream.
Electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) through the forecast period. Despite the increases in the electron flux, the electron fluence is starting at a low levels with the solar wind enhancements unlikely to provide a large enough increase in values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-14T00:30:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |