MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-13T00:18:33
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to rise and perhaps give diurnal peaks above the High level from tomorrow onwards, especially for days 3 and 4 (15th and 16th), in response to the arrival of a high speed stream from CH01. However, this is unlikely to be sufficient to raise the 24-hour integrated fluence levels to the Active threshold, despite an increasing trend.
The latest Met Office REFM output indicates a gradual increase in fluence levels, but with the levels remaining below the Active threshold. This is accepted as good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-13T00:18:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |