Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-14T00:04:55

The high energy electron flux is expected to remain at normal background levels through the period, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence persisting well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

Coronal hole 90 may become geoeffective early in the four-day period, most likely today. While electron populations may rise in its wake over the weekend, the magnitude of the high speed stream is unlikely to challenge the Active 24-hour electron fluence threshold. This is supported by both the REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence, which have levels remaining very low throughout.