MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-12T00:02:20
The high energy electron flux cycle has shown a trend downwards over the last 24 hours. Current expectations are that electron flux counts will now hold below the alert threshold of 1e3 pfu for remainder of this forecast period (albeit with low confidence). Likewise, fluence values have now reduced and breaching the active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu is no longer anticipated in this forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-02-12T00:02:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |