Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-11T00:15:06

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux are most likely to continue to reach high levels during the diurnal maximum for much of this forecast period. If higher geomagnetic activity levels come to pass then a drop in peak electron flux may be seen, but otherwise a similar diurnal trend to that seen on recent days looks set to continue.

Twenty-four hour fluence figures are likely to be close to or slightly above the active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu initially. REFM output shows a rather marked in fluence during the next couple of days and current expectations are that this drop-off will not be as quick as shown, however the downward trend is the most likely outcome. The active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu may fall below the threshold either on day 3 or 4 (13 and 14 Feb), and this is reflected in the probability table.