Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-10T00:04:31

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16, has been gradually climbing during the last couple of days, albeit with a background diurnal variation. This steady rise has led the fluence to come close to the Active threshold on the last two days, without actually crossing it. Given the reduced solar wind speed, flux values are expected to start declining, meaning the chance of seeing the associated fluence above Moderate levels appears very slim and increasingly unlikely. REFM is still adjusting to the reduced observed values, but is showing a declining trend over the next 24 hours.

Please note, however, that high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux values measured at GOES14 have remained markedly higher (as much as 4x) than GOES16 observations. Whilst the alerts and risk percentages shown are based upon observations at GOES16, it is worth being aware that there is the potential that GOES16 is currently under observing flux values.