Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-03T00:01:41

There is little to affect the recent diurnal trend in high energy electron flux during the first half of the working week, with a similar oscillation between Normal Background and Moderate flux most likely.

The possibility of the arrival of coronal hole 07 on day four, Thursday 06 February, should see an upward trend in the solar wind speed, and an eventual increase in the electron flux, probably in the later stages of the day. The extent of this increase is open to significant doubt, as the coronal hole responsible is much-changed from its last pass, Earth is relatively more 'in line' to connect (being further south), and negative coronal holes are relatively more potent for being near the vernal equinox. 

This forecast therefore gives a relatively higher chance of breaching the Active fluence threshold than for some time, although the magnitude of any reaction remains to be seen.

This forecast must be tempered with the possibility that the coronal hole may still be too far south to connect, even in its new form, and the flux and fluence may remain unaffected.

Overall, the above points are reflected in a modest increase in probabilities, starting on day four but peaking beyond the range of this forecast on day five, Friday 07 February.