Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-02T00:30:47

The greater than 2MeV electron flux at GEO has remained below 1000pfu through the last 24 hours, with observations from GOES16 varying between being below its observable limits, to peaking at moderate values of around 330pfu. Solar wind pressure is unlikely to change significantly through the coming 4 day period, so whilst a moderate rise in the associated fluence is indicated by REFM, this is believed to be overestimating values at this stage. A similar overestimation was seen on REFM for the equivalent day 1 on the previous rotation, giving support to this reasoning.

Consequently Active greater than 2MeV electron fluence levels are not expected through this period. The next significant rise in electron counts is likely to be due to a connection to the fast wind of coronal 07 through day 5, with the subsequent electron enhancement likely to occur beyond this forecast period (days 5-6).