Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-09T00:02:24

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES16 has responded well to the fast speed stream originating from coronal hole 07, with flux levels increasing from Moderate to High during their diurnal cycle, reaching a peak of 2.02e3 pfu at 08/1830 UTC. A similar rise is expected during the following days, albeit with a diurnal maximum likely to exceed the value observed on the 08th, leading to an increased risk of the associated 24-hour integrated electron fluence to reach Active levels. The probability is somewhat lower on days 3 and 4 (11th and 12th) due to the possible arrival of the fast speed stream originating from coronal hole 09, likely to abate the electron count. This is supported by REFM which is giving reasonable guidance to the trend, although currently over-estimating peak values.

Please also note, however, there are currently significant differences between observed values form GOES14 and GOES16. The former having observed over 3000 pfu yesterday, over 3 times the amount observed at GOES16. This is the first significant high speed stream since GOES16 became operational, and with such differences observed, there is the potential that there is a systematic under-reporting from this satellite, and this will be monitored.