Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-10T00:12:55

The high energy electron flux is currently at moderate levels. However, electron populations are expected to rise under the influence of the high speed stream from CH99, with moderate levels continuing and possible occasional diurnal peak values at High levels (1000 pfu). However, the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is unlikely to reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during the forecast period, despite a general increasing trend. This is supported by the REFM forecast model, although the potential glancing impact of the weak CME today may well delay any rise, hence the low probabilities given in the table for today and tomorrow.