Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-09T00:10:29

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES16 remains below observable levels, at normal background. This is expected to mostly persist, however there is the potential for some enhancement later on day 1 and during day 2 after connecting to the fast wind originating from coronal hole 99. This is expected to bring moderate levels, with a chance of diurnal observed peak values reaching alert levels (1000pfu). The associated fluence levels are therefore expected to rise in response, but likely remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. There is some additional uncertainty with expected values, due to the potential glancing impact of the weak CME either late day 1 or during day 2, however this is very low confidence.