Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-08T00:19:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GOES16 is currently below the observable levels by the satellite, at normal background. The next source of any enhancement to the flux is likely to be the arrival of the fast wind associated with coronal hole 99. This is a new feature, limiting the value of persistence, whilst STEREO A is also currently providing little data. Consequently confidence is low regarding the strength of any high speed stream that will be encountered, and also its electron content. Confidence is also reduced further due to the potential interaction of a weak CME, as it passes close to, or potentially grazes the Earth, most likely either late on the 9th, or on the 10th.

Due to its small size and immaturity of the CH and only glancing effects of the CME expected, flux levels are currently anticipated to remain mostly moderate, but with a chance of reaching high levels (greater than 1000pfu) during diurnal peak, mostly from day 2 onward. The associated fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but with a slight chance of breaching this level from late day 2, should any more significant connection to the fast wind, or impact from the small CME occur.