MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-11T00:07:09
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at normal background levels, with a slight downward trend now apparent as the connection with coronal hole 89/- gradually wanes.
The 24-hour integrated electron fluence, which is currently well below the Active threshold, is expected to decrease a little further over the next couple of days, but may then rise slightly by Day 4 (14th Dec) in response to weak influence from coronal holes 90 and 91.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-11T00:07:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |