MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-11T00:21:12
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain mainly below the high (1e3pfu) threshold throughout. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with only a low chance of rising above on day 3 or 4, if a strong high speed stream materialises on day 1 or day 2. This is reflected in both the 3-day REFM forecast and the 27-day recurrence, which both show levels remaining below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-11T00:21:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |