MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-12T00:06:51
The unremarkable electron counts seen over recent days may start to show an upward trend once the next HSS becomes established. High flux (over 1e3 particles cm-2 sr-1 s-1) is possible from 13 Oct onwards which will push fluence figures up as well. At this stage breaching the active threshold looks unlikely but it will probably run close on 14-15 Oct.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-12T00:06:51 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |