Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-12T00:08:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue to reach Active levels at first, especially during the diurnal peaks of Days 1 and 2 (12th and 13th), but with a slow downward trend expected through the period. The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold through Days 1 and 2 (12th and 13th), but with a decrease in likelihood by Days 3 and 4. However, confidence in the exact timing of the reduction below the Active threshold is not high.