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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-05T00:29:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) values are persistently high or very high on diurnal peaks and based on persistence is likely to remain at these levels through the next four days, in the absence of significant geomagnetic activity.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values is currently Very Active and based on a combination of flux levels and persistence, is expected to remain at this level through day 1 and much of day 2 (05 and 06 Sep). Confidence then decreases through days 3 and 4, although Active levels are expected throughout.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-09-05T00:29:39
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 100%
Day 2 100% 90%
Day 3 90% 60%
Day 4 80% 40%