Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-04T00:23:59

High energy electron flux levels (greater than 2MeV) have been persistently high to very high. Whilst some temporary reduction in these values can be expected from any geomagnetic activity, only a gradual decline in peak values is anticipated. This is supported by persistence where high values on the last rotation persisted for a number days, with only brief and transient reductions.

The corresponding electron fluence is currently Very Active and expected to remain at this levels through days 1 and 2. Confidence decreases a little by day 3, although Active electron fluence is expected throughout. This is supported by the REFM model, which maintains very Active levels, although overestimating values.