MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-04T00:10:50
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron counts are currently high, only falling briefly to moderate levels around the typical diurnal minimum. Peak daily flux levels are expected to show a gradual decline through the forecast period, but likely remaining high throughout.
The associated high energy electron fluence remains above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is likely to only gradually decline through the period. Whilst REFM has a reasonable steer regarding the downward trend, this is too keen to reduce values below the Active threshold, with a much steadier decline anticipated, and perhaps staying above through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-04T00:10:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |