Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-03T00:07:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected remain at near or above Active levels at the diurnal maxima. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain close to the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), rising above it at times during the next four days, but with decreasing confidence later in the period. The 27-day recurrence suggests levels will be very close to the Active threshold, which is probably more realistic than the REFM forecast which is too low. There is considered to be an even chance of rising above at first, with the current flux just above the Active level, but with decreasing confidence later in the period.