MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-02T00:17:46
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected remain at moderate levels, but with diurnal peaks to high levels possible.
The associated electron fluence is expected to remain close to the Active threshold (above 1e8 integrated pfu), with a 40% chance of it rising above this threshold. Then day 4 (5th) the chance increases slightly, of the fluence rising above the Active threshold, as the high speed stream form coronal hole 78 arrives.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-02T00:17:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |