MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-26T00:29:21
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain above the high threshold through the majority of the forecast period, in the absence of any significant geomagnetic enhancements which could temporarily, but rapidly reduce electron counts. It is likely that the electron flux will fall below the high threshold on diurnal troughs during day 4.
Corresponding 24 hour fluence levels are expected to remain above the Active threshold during days 1 and 2, with a slight chance of reaching Very Active levels. A general decline in fluence levels is likely through day 3, but with a likelihood that it will remain above the Active threshold. There is a chance that this decline will continue on day 4, with fluence values perhaps falling below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-26T00:29:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 20% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 20% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |