MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-27T00:29:21
The high energy electron flux is expected to be at mainly high levels, but will briefly oscillate into moderate levels on diurnal lows, and in light of periods of geomagnetic storming.
High energy electron fluence values are expected to be at Active levels through days 1 and 2 due to elevated solar winds, with a slight chance of reaching Very Active levels. The likelihood of staying above the threshold on days 3 and 4 is more uncertain due to the effects of a potential CME arrival during day 3.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-27T00:29:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 20% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 20% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |