Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-25T12:09:23

The rising trend in electron counts over the past few days is likely to continue with the daily flux maxima reaching high levels (over 1e3 pfu) on each of the next four days. This is similar to the behaviour seen on the previous rotation, although with a slight reduction in activity compared to what was seen then.

Fluence will rise in conjunction and the question is whether the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) will be breached. Current estimates put fluence figures just shy but confidence is low. In any event if the active threshold does get exceeded it will not be by a great amount and the risk of reaching very active levels (1e9 integrated pfu) looks negligible.