Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-19T00:06:45

The high energy electron flux in the Van Allen belt (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels over the next 2 days, with an increase to high levels expected from day 3 (21st), after any more significant geomagnetic activity has subsided. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the the next 3 days, with an increase above the threshold considered likely by day 4 (22 Nov). This is supported by the 27-day recurrence which showed a rise above the Active threshold on the equivalent of day 3, although the current REFM forecast has not captured this expected rise at present.