MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-19T00:06:27
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as measured by GOES16, is expected to be at normal background levels intially. A rising trend in flux/fluence is expected through the period, however it is uncertain how quickly electron levels will rise, as the flux took longer to increase on the last rotation than on previous rotations. However, it seems likely that the diurnal maximum could begin reaching or exceeding the High threshold (greater than 1000pfu) from Day 2 (20 Dec).
The corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence is expected to take longer to approach or reach Active levels, and is unlikely to do so before Day 4 (22 Dec), based on the trend from the last rotation. The latest REFM output supports this.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-19T00:06:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |