Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-26T00:02:14

The high energy electron flux is currently below the 1000 pfu Alert level, and is expected to remain so over the next 4 days. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will therefore also stay well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence with both indicating below Active fluence levels in the forecast period. With recent weak solar wind speeds there is nothing to drive the flux higher, and even expected solar wind speeds of 400 km/s are insufficient to re-energise the Van Allen belts.