MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-25T00:02:04
The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES16 may peak at moderate levels during the peak of the diurnal cycles each day, otherwise normal background electron counts are anticipated. An increase is possible on Days 3 and 4 if any weak connection to CH04 or CH05 occurs, however it is unlikely this will reach High levels. Therefore the associated fluence is unlikely to reach Active levels. This is supported by REFM, and the 27-day persistence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-25T00:02:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |