Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-01T00:29:40

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background to moderate levels. A gradual increase in the flux levels is likely over the forecast period, as a response to the recent slightly elevated or elevated solar wind speed. The flux may reach high levels during the diurnal cycles during days 3 and 4 (3rd and 4th) but predominantly moderate flux levels are expected. Therefore the associated high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active levels. This differs to the guidance shown by the Met Office REFM, which shows the fluence exceeding the Active threshold during day 3 (3rd Feb).