Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-24T00:10:56

The high degree of uncertainty in the geomagnetic forecast has a strong bearing on the upcoming electron fluence forecast, which in turn is not helped by the current fluence level lying close to the Active threshold.

There is a possibility of a degree of geomagnetic activity on all days, but perhaps slightly more likely on Tuesday 25 February, which may temporarily disrupt Active levels, giving a dip in probabilities. Of greater confidence is the likelihood that the electron flux should continue to oscillate between Moderate and High flux, which gives probabilities near 50% beyond day one, although efforts have been made to hint at which side of the threshold is felt to be more realistic in all cases.

In the longer term, the trend later this working week is felt most likely to be downward, hence the drop at the very end in the wake of any midweek enhancement.