MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-20T00:11:45
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as measured by GOES16, is expected to gradually rise over the next few days. The diurnal peak may reach High levels today (20 Dec), but is more likely to reach High levels from tomorrow (21 Dec) onwards.
During the last rotation it took until day 6, from the onset of the high speed stream, for the corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence to reach Active levels. This is much slower than the forecast from Met Office REFM model. Currently a forecast of the fluence reaching Active levels from either late on day 3 (22nd) or into day 4 (23rd) is favoured.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-20T00:11:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |