Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-19T00:03:04

This four-day period is relatively unlikely to see elevated electron levels, although this carries lower confidence than of late. The reason for the lower confidence from Day 2 (20 Jan) comes as a result of the uncertain influence from a possible close pass of a CME on Day 1 (19 Jan). So, while persistence methods would suggest that increased electron fluence is not expected through the early part of the period, a response to the transient may be observed from Day 2 (20 Jan).

There is then a coronal hole which may become geoeffective on Days 3 or 4 (21 or 22 Jan), but wind speeds are only likely to reach 400-450 km/s. This means that whilst an increase in electron levels is possible, the chance of this reaching Active fluence levels is still low. Both REFM and the recurrence-persistence forecast model suggest low probabilities of reaching Active levels through this period.