Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-12T00:00:37

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain mainly below the Active threshold throughout, with the corresponding fluence remaining below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM forecast model and the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly support a below-Active trend for the next four-days.

However there is slight chance that we may see a rise in the electron counts over the next few days, should solar wind speeds increase on Day 1. This would therefore increase the likelihood of seeing the corresponding 24-hour fluence above the Active threshold although the probability is currently very low.