MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-13T00:04:16
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at normal background to moderate levels throughout, with only a slight chance of rising to high levels due to any weak enhancements that occur. The chance of the electron flux reaching high levels increases somewhat on Day 4 (16 Nov) as we may start to see an influence from coronal hole 82. The corresponding fluence will remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM forecast model and the 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-13T00:04:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |