MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-13T00:01:56
Peak electron counts may start to show an upward trend compared to recent days once the next HSS becomes established. High flux (over 1e3 particles cm-2 sr-1 s-1) is possible during the diurnal peak each day. This will mean increasing fluence figures, although at this stage breaching the active threshold looks unlikely. Nonetheless, it will probably run close on 14-15 Oct.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-13T00:01:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |