Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-06T00:16:54

Electron flux over the next four days is likely to continue in a similar vein to previous days, with daily diurnal maxima still likely to reach high levels, at least initially.

However, there is some uncertainty regarding trends through days 2 to 4 (7 to 9 Oct). The Met Office REFM output indicates a steady downward trend in fluence values. Persistence, however, suggests there could be a temporary increase again from the equivalent of later on day 2 (7 Oct). This appears to be connected to a period of slightly stronger solar winds which occurred last rotation, and which was also still evident from recent STEREO-A data.

Therefore, the forecast is for initially near active fluence on day 1 (6 Oct), gradually decreasing into day 2 (7 Oct), but then with a possible further temporary increase to near the active threshold through days 3 and 4 (8 to 9 Oct).