Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-07T00:10:43

Electron flux over the next four days is likely to continue to diurnally peak into the high threshold (greater than 1000pfu), at least initially.

There is then some uncertainty regarding trends through days 2 to 4 (8 to 10 Oct). The Met Office REFM output indicates a steady downward trend in fluence values. Persistence, however, suggests there could be a temporary increase again, from the equivalent of later on day 1 (7 Oct). This appears to be connected to a period of slightly stronger solar winds which occurred last rotation, and which was is also still evident from recent STEREO-A data.

The forecast is for below active fluence on day 1 (7 Oct). However, a further temporary increase to near the active threshold is possible through days 2 and 3 (8 to 9 Oct).