Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-07T00:14:12

The high energy electron flux peaked today at 1.63e4 pfu, after a slight dip from the previous very high levels seen a few days ago. Solar conditions are similar to the previous rotation, so it is expected that electron counts will follow a pattern much like that seen previously, namely a continuation of high diurnal electron flux through this forecast period.

Electron fluence dropped briefly to a minimum of 2.89e8 integrated pfu at 06/0300UTC, as result of yesterday’s reduction in electron flux. It has steadily risen since then to 5.83e8 integrated pfu. With electron flux holding at high levels, electron fluence is likely to remain above the active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu throughout, with a chance of exceeding the very active threshold of 1e9 integrated pfu.