Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-08T00:08:15

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at high levels and is expected to continue at these high levels through much of the next few days, albeit with a gradual declining trend as high speed stream effects weaken. Late on day 3 (10th) or on day 4 (11th) the possible arrival of the high speed stream from CH51/- may help to reduce electron flux levels more noticeably.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values have risen to Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) levels. Fluence values are forecast to slowly decline from Very Active values either later on day 1 or during day 2, but are expected to remain above the Active threshold through much of the period. On day 4 (11th) fluence levels may drop below the Active threshold if modestly enhanced geomagnetic activity occurs, associated with potential high speed stream arrival from CH51/-.