Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-15T00:14:16

The high energy electron flux continues to peak at high levels during its diurnal cycle, albeit with a slight downward trend in the maxima observed. This slow decline is expected to continue through this forecast period, although peaks of above 1.0e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1 (i.e. high levels) are still likely to be recorded each day. It will likely take until at least day 4 (18 Aug) before peak daily flux reduces below 1.0e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1.

Likewise, the 24 hour fluence is exhibiting a slow downward trend and this is likely to continue, albeit not to the degree with which REFM shows. In fact, the fluence looks like it will remain above the active threshold of 1.0e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1 throughout this four day period, probably not falling below until 19 Aug, beyond the current forecast period.