Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-16T00:06:15

The high energy electron flux has remained at high levels. A slow decline is probable over the next four days, with moderate to high levels likely and by days 3&4 (18&19 Aug.) it will be the diurnal peaks above 1.0e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1 (i.e. high levels) that are most likely to be recorded each day. It will likely take until after day 4 (19 Aug) before peak daily flux reduces below 1.0e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1.

The 24 hour fluence is steady just above 2e8 integrated electron fluence, however  a slow downward trend  is likely to develop, albeit more slowly than REFM output shows. In fact, the fluence looks like it will remain above the active threshold of 1.0e8 throughout this four day period, probably not falling below this threshold until around 20 Aug, beyond the current forecast period.