Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-15T00:07:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to peak above the Active threshold (1000 pfu) over the next few days at the diurnal maxima. Values are currently above the Active threshold. The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is above the Active threshold at present, and will likely remain just above the threshold until Day 2 (16th), but with a downward trend by Day 3 and 4 (17th and 18th). The current level is above the levels recorded with the previous rotation and due to the recent elevation in the solar wind speed. The REFM forecast indicates a steady decline from a peak early on day 1 (15th).