MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-22T00:15:30
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels on days 1 and 2 (22nd and 23rd). Peak values are likely to increase a little through days 3 and 4, with the arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 64, however, similar to the previous rotation, only a minimal response is expected.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, as indicated by REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-09-22T00:15:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |