MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-23T00:18:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below high (1e3) levels due to the expected slow or slightly elevated solar wind speeds. There is a gradually increasing trend in diurnal peaks from day 2 due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 64.
Corresponding 24-hour fluence is on a declining trend and is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the forecast period. There is a slightly increased risk later in the forecast period due to the slightly elevated high speed stream.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-09-23T00:18:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |