Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-24T00:12:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to reach moderate levels through the diurnal cycle on most days, with an increasing chance of peaking above the high (1000 pfu) threshold as electron counts increase under slightly enhanced winds on days 1 and 2 (24th & 25th) from weak coronal hole 64 influences. However, significant electron re-distribution is likely by the end of day 4 (27th) due to increased geomagnetic activity as large positive coronal hole 65 moves to a geoeffective location.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to see an increasing trend through much of the period, but expected to remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).