Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-25T00:25:08

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below the Active threshold through Days 1 to 3 (25 to 27Sep), although with possible peaks above the Active threshold at the diurnal maxima. A stronger rise through the Active threshold is increasingly likely on Day 4 (28Sep), following the expected high speed stream from coronal hole 65. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on Days 1 to 3 (25 to 27Sep), but with increasing chance for breaching this level on Day 4 (28Sep). The forecast for a rise on Day 4 (28Sep) is supported by the 27-day recurrence, although the REFM forecast output does not yet model Day 4.