MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-26T00:12:23
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate diurnally between background and moderate levels on day 1 (26th). On day 2 (27th) the anticipated onset of the high speed stream from CH56/- is expected to result in an increase in the electron counts, likely fluctuating between moderate and high levels. The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to increase from day 2 (27th) and is likely to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on days 3 and 4 (27th and 28th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-08-26T00:12:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 2% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 10% |