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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-26T00:12:23

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate diurnally between background and moderate levels on day 1 (26th). On day 2 (27th) the anticipated onset of the high speed stream from CH56/- is expected to result in an increase in the electron counts, likely fluctuating between moderate and high levels. The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to increase from day 2 (27th) and is likely to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on days 3 and 4 (27th and 28th).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-08-26T00:12:23
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 30% 2%
Day 3 60% 10%
Day 4 70% 10%