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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-27T00:16:44

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, but counts should increase once any significant geomagnetic activity from coronal hole high speed stream connection on day 1 (27th) has subsided. Actual levels are difficult to estimate, as counts remained insignificant under the influence of coronal hole 56 on its previous rotation, with the integrated fluence remaining well below the active threshold, but an increasing chance of exceeding is suggested from day 2 (28th).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-08-27T00:16:44
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 10% 1%
Day 2 30% 5%
Day 3 40% 5%
Day 4 40% 5%